Two new studies published in Nature Climate Change suggest that the world may have already entered a period of sustained global warming above the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement. The warning follows 2024 being the first full calendar year where global temperatures exceeded this threshold.

Alex Cannon, a researcher at Environment and Climate Change Canada, stated that if such anomalies persist for 18 months, crossing the Paris Agreement threshold will be “virtually certain.” Similarly, Emanuele Bevacqua and colleagues at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research estimated that the odds of 2024 marking the start of a 20-year period above 1.5°C are high.

While the Paris Agreement’s target is measured over a 20-year average, scientists warn that breaching this limit could trigger irreversible climate tipping points. Meanwhile, UN estimates indicate that current emission reduction pledges put the planet on track for a temperature rise of 2.6–3.1°C.

Adding to concerns, climatologist James Hansen has declared that even the 2°C target is no longer viable, as his latest research suggests that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought. The expected cooling effect of La Niña failed to materialize, with January 2025 recorded as the hottest January ever.

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